CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z MON 31/01 - 06Z TUE 01/02 2005
ISSUED: 31/01 00:29Z
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

General thunderstorms are forecast across parts of central Scandinavia, the Botnic Gulf and western Estonia as well as southern parts of the eastern Mediterranean region.

SYNOPSIS

Monday at 06 UTC... a high pressure area is located to the southwest of Ireland within a highly amplified flow pattern across the forecast area. A northwesterly jet is located over western Europe and moves southward while veering. A longwave trough has its axis approcimately over the Ukraine with an elongated trough extending westsouthwestward towards northern Algeria. Isolated storms are expected across Scandinavia as a maritime polar air mass tracks southeastward over the region.

DISCUSSION

...southern Turkey...
Scattered storm developing in the area may develop rotating updrafts as a result of strong deep-layer wind shear. However, low instability of a few 100's CAPE at maximum and small low level shear are limiting factors to the convective threat. Nevertheless, a few strong wind events as well as localized marginally large hail are possible. A tornado cannot be completely ruled out either. Overall threat is too low to warrant a categorical risk.

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